How Will You Know Inflations Back

The Consumer Price Index may be DOA at the moment, but the price of cereal is a killer.

The prices of corn and other grains are as high as elephant's eyes. So cornflakes and other breakfast cereals are enough to bowl you over. General Mills instituted price hikes last fall, for instance, and according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, cereal and bakery products rose 1.1 percent just between December and January.

Dutta crunched some numbers, however, and says that, if there's cause for solace, it's that consumer food prices are "rising, but not at nearly the same pace as food commodity prices are."

But others say that respite can't last forever. And changing your breakfast routine may not help, either. The category that includes eggs was up 6.2 percent in 2010, or roughly four times the index.

In recent years, a slack economy kept the inflation rate penned in. But recently, a writer for Forbes noted that his order for a three-piece takeout chicken dinner with coleslaw, baked beans and a drink came to nearly $10, or a $40 dinner out for a family of four. That's not chicken feed.

Whether this means inflation has sprung the coop is yet to be determined, however. Inflation hawks see cause for alarm, but the latest Consumer Price Index showed food away from home is only up 1.5 percent over the past 12 months.

Still, experts agree restaurant prices -- and fast food in particular -- are one of the more reliable inflation indicators, and it isn't always visible to the naked eye. Even if costs seem stable, for instance, restaurant chains can effectively raise prices by curtailing discounts like coupons and in-store specials.