California researchers say the concept of a caring family for the elderly in the 21st Century will be very different than today, with stepchildren playing a major role.
Unprecedented rates of divorce and remarriage are already redefining families of baby boomers. When the boomers grow old in the future, they will have impressive numbers of stepchildren and step-grandchildren.
The higher number of stepchildren should expand the number of family members on whom boomers may later rely, says a new study from the University of California at Berkeley.
Disability rates among older people are on the decline. But rapid growth is expected in the sheer number of the very elderly -- those 85 and older -- who are most in need of help. This group is expected to reach at least 7 million in the year 2020 and to double again by 2040 when the first baby boomers reach age 85.
"The informal family network is the mainstay of long-term care of the disabled elderly population and aging will increase the demand for family caregiving," says Richard M. Suzman, head of the National Institute of Aging's (NIA) office of demographics. "This research dramatizes the need for families of the future to adapt in innovative ways."
The California researchers, supported by NIA, found that while the low birth rate among baby boomers will result in a steep decline in the number of elderly people with biological children, adding stepchildren to the mix changes things dramatically.
Since 1980, the ratio of biological children to stepchildren for people age 70 to 85 has doubled. The ratio is expected to rise by another 50 percent by the year 2030. The situation is similar with grandchildren.
